Condition Matrix

Map out, identify and monitor the critical conditions in order to optimize your chances of success of a winning strategy.

How to use it

Time Needed

45 minutes




Post-its, sharpies,
pencils, paper


Individual or Group

How To Use

When formulating a strategy, it’s important to think about the conditions that can make it or break it. Use this matrix to get a clear view on what are the critical conditions that you need to test.

Step 1: Get Started

Start by writing all the conditions that are necessary for your strategy to succeed. Write one condition per post-it.

Step 2: Dependency

Pick up the post-its and place them alongside the horizontal axis. If your strategy is highly dependent on that condition, place the post it on the right side. if, on the other hand, the strategy is not much dependent on the condition, it goes left.

Step 3: Certainty

Now it’s time to move the post-its vertically. If you know a lot about the condition, it means the level of uncertainty is low, so you can move it downwards. If, on the other hand, you lack knowledge about that condition, the level of uncertainty is high, thus you can move it upwards.

Step 4: Actions

The hard part is done. You now have your conditions spread through 4 actionable quadrants:

  • Review (Low, Low): You strategy is unlikely to be affected by conditions on this quadrant. Revisit them periodically to spot mid/long term changes.
  • Monitor (Low, High): These are the conditions you should monitor constantly because your strategy is dependent on them. If something changes you have time to adjust.
  • Study (High, Low): Upcoming trends, new technologies, these are conditions that you don’t know much about, and therefore you should study. They can have surprising effects on your strategy.
  • Test (High, High): These are the key conditions for your strategy to be successful. They can make it or break it. Testing is the safest choice to understand their impact and protect your strategy.

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